The great Indian election tamasha

What is going to be the story of general elections 2009?

They say that it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. The dilemma that faces Congress is that Sonia isn't fat enough. The fat ladies that are going to sing (and make the bad boys sway to their tunes) are from the so called "Third Front" - Behenji Mayawati, Jayalalitha et al.

NDA looks stale, sounding like a broken record and playing the Jai Shri Ram card ever so often. Whats even worse is that the party seems to be dilly-dallying on the true stand and come out with a set of issues it wants to contest the elections on.
Even before we get some preliminary inkling as to which way the "Janaadesh" may be going, BJP seems to be in damage control - Attacking the prime minister, attacking Sonia, backing Varun Gandhi but not backing his statements, Jaitley fighting Rajnath, blaming Congress for the IPL fiasco (Moving IPL to SA IMHO was a smart move - In special times when tackling terror is a global nightmare, Chidambaram had every right to be as cautious as he did)

The UPA is in utter disarray - It has almost vanished. Perhaps they lack a deal clincher like Pramod Mahajan or Arun Jaitley adept at tough bargaining, winning regional allies and ending up with a seat share agreement that makes all parties happy. Going by the current scheme of things, the Congress would consider itself lucky if it were to win more than 15 seats in UP + Bihar combined. With the cowbelt gone from under its belt, it would take a miracle for UPA to reach anywhere close to even 250 seats.

More threatening is the situation with the so called allies of NDA and UPA. Power hungry netas from NDA/UPA regional allies would be willing to make a quick buck and get ministerial berths by supporting a Third Front government lead by someone like Maya or Jaya or Sharad. Our comrades from left would be more than willing to lead a helping hand in order to prevent "anti national" forces of BJP or Congress from ruling the country and plunging it into any further darkness. Parties like Shiv Sena, MNS may very well be won over by Pawar playing the "Marathi Manoos" card. Of course defections could be manufactured within BJP and Congress as well. But in the current day scenario, the third front jokers are running ahead in the race.

What emerges out of this great Indian election tamasha may not be known well until a week after the counting ends on 16th May. And inspite of this post, I am a firm believer that there is nothing that can be predicted in Indian General Elections.

In an emotional electorate like India, an assasination or a terrorist strike or a single master stroke from one player may turn the tide for or against it. Its getting interesting. Just that I don't want to see a situation where Pawar is the PM and he is being fed grapes by Maya and Jaya. A nightmare that would be!